Monday, February 16, 2009

Weekly Report on ES - Feb 16th to 20th '09

Last week, i forewarned that ES was certainly not out of the woods and could sink further. We're now back to the crucial 812 test level and the picture has not improved a bit. We'll certainly give this support level a chance to hold even the outlook certainly looks a little bleak...

ES 60mins: Aiming at support level (also Fib target), it is difficult to assess whether buyers will come back to the party at this level. The next stronger level is otherwise ~796. Even if current level holds, nothing indicates a possible bounce at this stage, so the most likely scenario is a continuation of this messy trading range.

ES Daily: Not looking too good here either. ES could really sink deep... down to the mid 720s i.e. close to November lows! Having said that, should 812 break, there should be substantial fighting in the 780 area.

ES Weekly: Longer term context is somewhat bearish too. However, despite bars being decidedly red, there is some support around bar lows, so we may avoid the all gloom and doom scenario still. For the time being, staying on the side line is probably the safest bet here until we see a MTFS line crossover, blue bars and a better looking Entropy.

( posted 7:10 AM UK )