Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Market update - Mar 3rd '09

We anticipated that selling pressure would take prices lower, but we though 375 would be strong enough to hold. Was that an effect of volatility which as we all know can force prices to stretch a support level.

Today we'll certainly have to watch ER's behaviour on 375. Will prices try and rebound to stay above that danger line, or will we see on the contrary that level being tested to give short-sellers more reason to aim lower...

ES has been ahead of ER for a while, and has now reached stall level (703) where a short term bounce is possible. It is difficult to assess how high it can go but should give little credit for now even if prices are VERY oversold. Our target remains in the high 680s (longer time frames are more bearish)

It seems we haven't quite reached the floor yet, so those looking for an entry/exit point here should switch to shorter time frames. Others can stay short and count their pennies, as bargain time is coming (don't get me wrong: it can take a few weeks to a couple of months or more). It's going to be a very bumpy recovery, but markets are really really cheap these days.