Market Update - Dec 4th '09

The confusion area clearly visible on daily time frame and hesitation on stall level made me pick the wrong direction (nobody's perfect), even though i was not even convinced myself. ES did not manage to push close to the (too) much anticipated resistance level on 1125. Again, i've indicated that in such case, shorter time frames are recommended.

ES broke pivot level on the downside to aim straight at stall level (also Fib level) where a bounce is likely to 1105. Longer term players are however probably slowly gearing up for the sizeable retracement mentioned before, and options traders who've place the Dec call spreads above 1125 for a while are pretty safe. Breaking 1095 would mean changing price segment to then test lows again on the mid 1060s.

TF stalled on 600 (see previous reports) to retrace to Fib and very likely lower today. 580 is our target even is a short term bounce is possible. The daily chart is just as confusing as ES, but we all know that the longer term retracement is probably under way already. It is interesting to see the conflicting Fib patterns on the daily chart, probably confirming the change of regime.

EURUSD: hit our long target yesterday to start retracing. It is now short term bearish with a pivot point on 1.5075, then maybe 1.5104
EURUSD is relatively easy to follow on shorter time frames. It should remain range bound overall, so probably a good day for easy going swing trading.

( posted 7:40 AM UK )