Market Outlook SPY for Oct 11th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Mildly UP at least until resistance is tested.

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK lines haven't joined and Entropy is again coming down a bit. Current resistance at 156.25 is obviously still valid, and since the significance level is not very high, one must look for clues on higher times frames.

Daily: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK may soon show first signs of weakness as lines could cross shortly, but this probably won't translate into a retracement any time soon.
We now have to watch how the market attacks the current strong resistance level (all time highs + MM + FIB (60mins)). Note that this MM level is not as strong as same level in July. One can just as well see a strong breakout or a kind of double top. There is still so much accumulated energy that the latter scenario is less probable at this stage.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming.
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK when lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top later on?).

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 10th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly and Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Up until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our selection of 3 indices.

60mins: neutral to mildly up.
Despite the positive reaction to the news, one can see that RUT still hovers on the 843 pivot level (range 838-845). The pivot level has also turned to resistance level indicating more difficulty going higher. One will also note that yesterday's up day did not affect Entropy which is very low.

Daily: Mildly UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend... until lines join...
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
AdStoK's green line grows at a rate of 5% per day at the moment, so it could take a couple of days before they cross and possibly see some slowing down (line gradient upon crossing should provide interesting information then).

Weekly: UP until...
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 851, 860 then maybe 875 over the next couple of weeks. The Swing indicator is up, but remains close to a key turning point.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 10th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until ...

60mins: Up, but very overbought.
NDX seems to be heading for the 2188 level now, and no retracement in sight in the short term. Only an influence from SPX may affect this trend to some extent.

Daily: Crazy, i.e. still up.
Nothing seems to be able to stop the trend which seems excessive now.
Levels to watch: 2188 first then 2250. A retracement on 2188 is possible, maybe triggered by economic news or correlation with SPX which is on a test level.

Weekly: UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is so low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can however notice a divergence, hence there is a possible slowdown on forthcoming resistance and line meeting point.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 10th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Mildly UP at least until resistance is tested.

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: neutral to mildly UP.
SPY reacted to the positive news with a new test of all time highs. AdStoK almost completed it V shape pattern, so we may have a decision point coming when lines join. Entropy has picked up again so one may reach 157.8 (Fib + MM) over the next few days. Current resistance at 156.25 is obviously still valid though.

Daily: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK may soon show first signs of weakness as lines could cross shortly, but this probably won't translate into a retracement any time soon.
We now have to watch how the market attacks the current strong resistance level (July highs + MM + FIB (60mins)). Note that MM level is not as strong as same level in July.


Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming.
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK when lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top later on?).

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly and Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Up until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our selection of 3 indices.

60mins: Up, but pivot level then July highs must be tested.
RUT calmed down on the 843 pivot level, so we now have a reprieve on that level with the AdStoK showing a bit of weakness and Entropy falling. Yet the significance level is low, so one may just see some congestion but no serious retracement in the short term. On the contrary, RUT may try and test the pivot level and possibly July highs later on.

Daily: UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend... until lines join...
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
AdStoK's green line grows at a rate of 5% per day at the moment, so it could take at least a few days before it reaches overbought level and some slowing down. The white line may however retrace and provide some relief in the meantime.

Weekly: UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 851, 860 then maybe 875 over the next couple of weeks. The Swing indicator is up, but remains close to a key turning point.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP ...

60mins: Up, but very overbought.
NDX seems to be heading for the 2188 level now, but it could pause around 2156 first since Entropy is coming down a bit. No retracement in sight in the short term.

Daily: Crazy, i.e. still up. A slowdown would be salutary though, maybe around 2150.
Entropy is historically very high and AdStoK is so overbought that we have to see which resistance level will now hold.
Levels to watch: 2188 first then 2250. A retracement on 2188 is possible.

Weekly: UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is so low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can however notice a divergence, hence there is a possible slowdown on forthcoming resistance and line meeting point.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible new test of current highs.
SPY is breathing a bit after a strong run to Fib and MM level.
AdStoK shows a line separation with a fairly shallow gradient of the green line. There is therefore only a little chance it goes lower right now. Entropy is also losing the accumulated energy, so it is difficult a direction going forward.
Expected range: 154.50 - 156-25

Daily: neutral to mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK is also showing first signs of weakness, and lines could cross today or tomorrow. We now have to watch how the market attacks this strong resistance level (July highs + MM + FIB (60mins)).
One must be careful though not to jump to conclusion and anticipate a reversal any time soon.

Weekly: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top coming?).

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 8th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly and Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Up until...

Reaction on jobs data was exuberant to say the least and took us by surprise, not in direction but in strength.
Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our selection of 3 indices.

60mins: Up, but pivot level then July highs must be tested.
843 was reached as expected, but certainly faster than anticipated. AdStoK and Entropy are bullish, although the AdStoK white line may show first signs of weakness soon and Entropy is statistically high above 2.
It will take at least a few bars, maybe over a day to release the accumulated energy, while possibly remaining close to this pivot level.
Note that the significance level at this time frame has dropped, so one should take cues from the daily chart for now.

Daily: UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend... until lines join...
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
AdStoK's green line grows at a rate of 5% per day at the moment, so it could take at least a week before it reaches overbought level and some slowing down. The white line may however retrace and provide some relief in the meantime.

Weekly: UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 851, 860 then maybe 875 over the next couple of weeks. The Swing indicator should also turn around any time now. The indicator has remained due to the high volatility environment we've had in the last few months.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 8th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: Up until 156.25, then possible slowdown when accumulated energy is evacuated.
The seemingly tamed SPY in a narrow trading range reacted strongly to the news and quickly broke the 154.50 resistance to almost reach the 156.25 resistance which was already visible at the close of the day. We could not however anticipate the strength of the breakout.
AdStok is very strong but could peak soon (check white line) and Entropy is historically very very high. Having said that, it will take at least a few bars to release the accumulated energy, so again we have to see how SPY reacts around the 156.25 resistance level (Fib + MM). A slowdown is more than likely.

Daily: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK is giving a last bout to reach very overbought level without lines crossing just yet. This is a bullish situation and one can only expect its continuation i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross. We now have to watch how the market attacks this strong resistance level (July highs + MM + FIB (60mins)).

Weekly: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top coming?).

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 8th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP ...

Reaction on jobs data was exuberant to say the least and took us by surprise, not in direction but in strength.

60mins: Up, but very overbought.
NDX flew through the strong MM resistance level at 2125. This sometimes happens when the market first halts on the 'stall' level invalidating the upcoming resistance level.
AdStoK is very bullish but also very overbought, and Entropy at a level of 2 is historically very high. We have to wait for a pause, either now sitting on 2141, or around the next intermediate level at 2056.

Daily: Crazy, i.e. still up. A slowdown would be salutary though, maybe around 2150.
Entropy is historically very high and AdStoK is so overbought that we have to see which resistance level will now hold. There is a Fib + (minor) MM level around 2150 we'll have to watch now.

Weekly: UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is so low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 5th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly and 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. New target: 843.

60mins: mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but showing signs of slowing on this 829 level, and Entropy has lost about all its steam. Economic news could just as well trigger a retracement to 820 or help it rise to 843.
Note that MM levels have aligned to daily ones, i.e. strong MM resistance level at 875. 812.50 is now a strong support level.

Daily: Mildly UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels now that the key 812.50 level is behind us. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend.
Current resistance at 829 is still valid, the next ones being: 843 (stronger) then 860 and ultimately 875.

Weekly: mildly UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 843 over the next few weeks. The Swing indicator should turn around any time now. It has so far been a good representation of the hesitations we've had in lower time frames.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 5th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP, until 2125 resistance is truly tested. Probable slowdown then.

60mins: not much of a change change from yesterday: possible hesitation until new resistance level at 2125.
AdStoK is bullish but uncertainty is visible in the vagaries of the white line. The reason is that after such a strong bull run, NDX has been stopped on the MM stall level, ahead of the (too) expected MM resistance level. NDX will probably try and hit the same stall level then 2125 but we are in a narrower trading range now.

Daily: Neutral. Possible congestion or slowdown on coming resistance, due to extreme overbought situation.
NDX has started to slow down ahead of the strong MM level (2125). Entropy is very high but coming down a bit now, confirming an incipient slowdown. However, it is far too early to detect any major change in direction ahead.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can check for a possible change in dynamics on AdStoK line crossover, which could happen around the much anticipated 2125 level.