Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 19th '07


Dominant TF: Daily (and intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped SPY break the 150 level to now head toward 155 / 156, with a possible pause on the way at 153.
AdStoK turned very positive, so did Entropy.
Should there be some profit taking, 150 (maybe 149.50) would be tested for support.

Daily:
The Fed cut does not eliminate market risk (subprime etc), and should therefore not be interpreted as a "pass" to new highs.
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend join the party. One should wait for 150 tested for support to see higher prices.
Should we see some profit taking, SPY will find support around 150, otherwise 147. The possible range is therefore: 150 (maybe 147) to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet (due to high vol.), but the chart certainly looks bullish. Negative entropy should be exhausted to be fully reassured though.