Thursday, October 04, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 4th '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. July highs in sight now.

60mins: neutral.

AdStoK and Entropy showing mild signs of weakness, SPY will be looking for support within this narrow trading range, around 153.50 or closer to the MM pivot. It probably won't go lower as the entropy could already bottom shortly and the AdStoK's green line has a very shallow gradient. Range highs could be tested again.
Note that significance level at this time frame (yellow dots) is dropping though.

Daily: mildly UP to UP.
Same situation hence copy/paste from yesterday:
Entropy is now stable at a high level, and AdStoK is giving a last bout to reach very overbought level without lines crossing. One can only expect continuation of the same situation, i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross (July highs?). Entropy at 3 is historically very high, so a slowdown (rate of increase) is almost certain.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher (at least for now).

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
The Swing indicator is certainly hesitant as it is down again, indicating we might be close to a key level at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator.