Thursday, October 04, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 5th '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. July highs in sight now.

60mins: neutral.

Same type of trading range as yesterday with a mild upward bias. The resistance just above 154.5 could soon turn to a higher target, but there isn't much energy left right now. Note that the 156.25 target is now visible.

Daily: mildly UP.
Same situation hence copy/paste from yesterday:
Entropy is still quite high, albeit very slowly declining. AdStoK is giving a last bout to reach very overbought level without lines crossing just yet. This is a bullish situation (high prob). One can only expect its continuation i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross (July highs?). Entropy at 3 is historically very high, so a slowdown (rate of increase) is almost certain.
Next target is just above 156.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
The Swing indicator is again hesitant as it is up again, confirming we are close to a key level at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator.