Thursday, November 01, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 1st '07


Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily (10 and 15mins too)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: up until resistance is tested.

60mins: Up, but strong resistance is near.
Wild swings yesterday after the rate cut, yet their amplitude was not exceptional if we consider the volatility we've had.My comment from yesterday could not be more valid: "No visible retracement but the market has been very volatile, and may be looking for a slight lower support to bounce higher (2203?)."The current close at 2238 is actually a stall level and a strong resistance in lower time frames, but at the same time energy came late in the market, and should take at least a few bars to dissipate. We are therefore likely to see a continuation of momentum until 2250.

Daily: Up, but expecting a slow down approaching strong resistance level.
NDX is overbought, and yet each retracement so far has failed. Entropy and MTFS are holding well, and will most probably reach 2250 now. Watch lower time frames maybe taking the lead though.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). We therefore have 'waves in overbought zone' which may justify looking at a higher time frame. It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.