Thursday, November 01, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 1st '07


Dominant TF: 60mins and low intraday time frames (Daily not far behind still)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Trading range with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

Note: Swings have turned UP yet again on both 60mins and daily charts, indicating a possible key level around current prices.

60mins: congestion to up.
The MTFS pattern is unclear, with some indication of congestion with an upward bias. As we we are seemingly close to a key level, we'll have to watch for SPY's behaviour around the next strong resistance level which is now about 156.Entropy could pick up, but it still looks like a slow down could happen once the key target is reached.

Daily: mildly up but check levels carefully.
The Fed announcement did not provide any significant information: the daily chart still points slightly downward but also acknowledges the 150 support level. The MTFS pattern is however not bullish, nor is Entropy. It is safe to say that it should remain in the 150 to 156 trading range, but we'll have to follow Fib and MM levels very carefully as a new pattern should emerge shortly.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias.