Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 28th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-UP)
Market direction: Congestion. Behaviour around 2000 remains key.

Again, dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames, so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. Reading the 15 mins chart is very simple with a significance level of 91% and looks congested.

60mins: congestion - low significance level due to congestion

We're back on a 2000 support level, and congestion continues. 2030 is now a pivot level on lower time frames and serves as a resistance for the time being. No direction can be drawn from this time frame, but this is a great environment for scalping.

Daily: congestion to down
MTFS and Entropy still look a little bearish but the 2000 cannot be regarded as broken just yet. 2000 is still key level, and a bounce is possible within the next few days. Since the overall mood is bearish such rebound can very much take place a little lower for instance at PR2 (1970). We shall obviously remain careful until the MTFS pattern is completed. One cannot discard a recovery at as Entropy show signs of bottoming out (Bin=-3). The AutoFib gives a potential recovery to levels we have seen recently (COP ~ 2250).
Note: the lower significance level indicates that MTFS will adapt a little late, so recovery (if any) should detected on a 15mins chart.

Weekly: congestion to mildly down - low significance level.

The profit taking we've seen can stop here on the lower channel boundary reinforced by a strong support level. We cannot however ignore a potential breakout to 1935 PR1 retracement level.
Note: Swing uses a search depth parameter of 1 (refined search). Standard search returns UP. This indicates possible indecision on future direction.