Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 27th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, and 15mins (not shown).
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: DOWN, but support may be found in the low 730s
Same situation, so market commentary is quite similar today
60mins: Down, but probable congestion on strong support level
MTFS and Entropy look bearish, with congestion potential around the [730-750] trading range now that 750 is 'history'. RUT will try and stop its fall on 734.5, then 730 (would take more than a day though).Note that there is no recovery potential in the short term.

Daily: down...
Bearish MTFS lines have quite negative gradients indicating RUT going lower, thus pushing support level also lower (730?). The white line is stabilising indicating there could be a congestion at this low level... but certainly no chance of a recovery in the short term. The next Fib level is around 731 (close to August lows). 730 will be a key level. Since MTFS has to complete its pattern, even a recovery would take a few days to exhaust the negative pressure.
Weekly: caution but no panic
At first sight it looks like we had the anticipated double top. However, one should not jump to conclusions just yet, as we may also remain in a broad [750-875] trading range with a lower bias (MTFS lines). The 750 level has indeed turned from pivot to strong support level. In addition, we have a PR2 Fib level around 740 and RUT has in the last 2 years always bounced back on PR2, so there is no reason it will behave differently this time.