Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 27th '07


Dominant TF: 60 mins & Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: down

Unlike NDX, the daily time frame gives us a very good picture.

60mins: Down, but possible congestion on current levels
Entropy and MTFS both still point toward continuation of price erosion with a possible congestion (140.6 is a support level on lower time frames). No real recovery potential in the short term until MTFS lines join.
Daily: Down.
MTFS and Entropy do not look good and at this stage it is likely that the fall will continue until MTFS lines meet. SPY could eventually fall further to 141 (Fib) or even 137.50 (MM).While it is certainly too early, AutoFib has detected a recovery pattern. The last pivot (no4) should however first stabilise to consider it seriously.

Weekly: congestion to down - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a down bias. The lower end of the range could be tested again.