Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 27th '07


Dominant TF: Daily, but mostly 10 and 15 mins charts
Swings: DN-DN-UP (from DN-DN-DN)
Market direction: Congestion to down. Behaviour around 2000 remains key.

Again, dominant time frames are now shorter intraday time frames, so obviously only users of the TS technique can fully appreciate current dynamics. Reading the 15 mins chart is very simple with a significance level of 91% and point decidedly south.

60mins: congestion to down - low significance level due to congestion
2000 has been broken, but lower time frames show a 1989 support level anyway, and those times frames are more significant at the moment. MTFS and Entropy do not point towards a fall so 1989 should hold in the short term.

Daily: congestion to down
MTFS and Entropy still look bearish but the 2000 cannot be regarded as broken just yet. 2000 (or 1989?) is still key level, and a bounce is possible in the next few days. Since the overall mood is bearish such rebound can very much take place a little lower for instance at PR2 (1970). We shall obviously remain careful until the MTFS pattern is completed. One cannot discard a recovery at this level. The AutoFib gives a potential recovery to levels we have seen recently (COP ~ 2250).
Note: the lower significance level indicates that MTFS will adapt a little late, so recovery (if any) should detected on a 15mins chart.
Weekly: congestion to mildly down - low significance level.
We knew we had to watch for that growing divergence, and Entropy peaking. Now, there is still no overall change in direction and this profit taking is only healthy after such a bull run. We have a potential 1935 PR1 retracement level, so it could certainly come a little more down. In such case one cannot ignore that breaking the current channel would accelerate into serious selling pressure (PR2 = 1750 ...) but no panic just yet. 2000 is still holding...