Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 7th '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: up again...

60mins: Up again.
I anticipated some congestion before the bounce up, so the timing was not quite correct as it happened during the course of the day. Obviously, the 60mins chart provides visibility a few bars ahead, and dynamics can change during the course of the day (7 bars).The analysis remains about the same: MTFS and Entropy are both indicative of some upward bias (Energy is just picking up). It may provide some strength later on to reach 2250 (potential Fib pattern).

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.
NDX should creep up to previous highs, albeit considerably slower in comparison to what we've seen in the last couple of months. The rise may stall, but certainly no strong retracement in sight. 2250 seems a reasonable target now.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is still looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops. A peak in Entropy will also be an alert of a change in dynamics.