Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 7th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: UP-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

60mins: up, but MM & Fib levels to be checked.
We were yesterday at a junction and it could have gone both ways. It seems the 150 level (MM + Fib) held well, so a bounce is in order for the time being. We'll have to pass 153 to possibly resume the up trend we had before. If so, the all time highs are the next target.

Daily: congestion.
Significance level is slowly coming down, indicating we'll have to pay more attention to lower time frames. Unlike the 60mins chart, the daily chart (almost as significant) shows a congestion with a lower bias. For the time being, MTFS is not very bearish, hence the lower to mid part of the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
Entropy is looking OK but coming down, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a slight upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.With such a low significance level, one should rather take cues from lower time frames.