Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion - larger trading range on account of volatility
60mins: Congestion to down - Movements exaggerated by market volatility
I admittedly got it wrong here. I expected a congestion or a trading range [2188 - 2220] but certainly not the lower boundary to be broken so decisively. The Significance levels had dropped over the last few days, and lower time frames provided a clearer picture, which cannot be expressed on a daily snapshot.The bias is now down, but despite the high volatility, one should not expect any sort of fall or meltdown.NDX should find some support around 2165... or 2125!
Daily: Congestion.
This down day is no more than normal congestion ahead of the strong 2250 resistance. The expected slowdown is now there, but we still do not have conditions for a major retracement right now. Having said that a support must be found lower.
Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is still looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops. A peak in Entropy will also be an alert of a change in dynamics.
