Thursday, November 08, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 8th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: looking for support...

60mins: Down, support to be found toward next MM+ Fib level.
Always difficult to assess movements in both a very high volatility environment and so close to key levels. Lower time frames certainly helped a lot here.150 despite being strong broke, was tested again as a resistance, which is always an open door for bear who sold heavily in the last part of the day.We have 2 bearish Fib patterns both pointing for a first support level around 146. MTFS and Entropy certainly confirm this.

Daily: down.
Yesterday's scenario did not quite anticipate 150 to be broken even if we had negative entropy and a MTFS that didn't look too good. MTFS is certainly a lot more bearish now, so support can be found somewhat lower. Fib levels to be checked carefully (both retracement and expansion levels). Entropy is not dramatically low, so we're not in any sort of crash or meltdown... i.e. no panic just yet.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
We've been warning about MTFS divergence and a possible double-top. The MTFS pattern is however not that of a double top as such, so one should not jump to conclusions just yet, but certainly remain cautious.