Monday, December 10, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 10th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-UP-UP (from UP-UP-DN)
Market Direction: Moderately up - behaviour on 2125 is key

We've had some congestion as expected (MM + Fib + undecisive MTFS).

60mins: congestion, but behaviour on key resistance level may cause some congestion.

MTFS is again not showing a clear pattern, and we can only hope lines will join soon. In the meantime, one can only anticipate the continuation of the current congestion with an upper bias. Entropy is holding quite well, so a retracement is unlikely.
Current level is a mix of Fib and MM levels. Possible longer term target remains [2185-2190].

Daily: Up, but reversal around 2125 remains possible while unlikely.
We have the same scenario going on with a bit of a slowdown on the way to 2185 and 2250. There could be a little bit more congestion ahead, but no retracement in sight just yet. We'll have to watch Entropy potentially peaking though (LEntBin=4) over the next few days.

Weekly: up...
NDX is half-way in its channel again. We don't have a blue bar yet though. Significance level has fallen to 44% which is understandable as current moves are way too fast for this time frame.
One shall note that the swing indicator oscillates between UP and DN at current levels.