Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 11th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-UP-UP (from UP-UP-UP)
Market Direction: Moderately up but watch 2140 level

Market not expected to move much ahead of Fed announcement and forthcoming triple witching day. Dominant time frame is around 15 to 30mins, so users of the technique will better appreciate current dynamics.

60mins: congestion to upper bias
MTFS is not showing a clear pattern yet, and we can only hope lines will join soon. In the meantime, one can only anticipate the continuation of the current congestion with an upper bias.

Daily: Up, but first fib target has been hit on 2140
MTFS and Entropy point towards going higher to 2185 and 2250 but a resistance has been hit at 2140. We could therefore see a little bit more congestion ahead, but certainly no retracement in sight just yet. Should congestion linger on, we'll have to watch Entropy potentially peaking though (LEntBin=4) over the next few days. In other words, behaviour on 2140 will determine forthcoming direction.

Weekly: up...
NDX is half-way in its channel again, and the bar has not turned blue. Significance level has fallen to 44% which is understandable as current moves are way too fast for this time frame.
One shall note that around 2125 the swing indicator oscillates between UP and DN.