Market Outlook SPY for Dec 11th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swing: UP-UP-UP (from UP-UP-DN)
Cycle: Daily 128: Avg
Market Direction: Upper bias but possible congestion

Similar comments as NDX.
Swing turned up on weekly chart indicating this could be a key level.

60mins: Congestion to slight upper bias.
Virtually no change:
Significance level is coming down, ahead of MTFS pattern completion. We would prefer a crossover in overbought territory, but looking at current line gradients, that may just not happen. Entropy is still positive so MTFS can still crawl slightly upward in the short term. Testing 150 for support would be a good sign for bulls. A significant retracement is unlikely at this point in time (i.e. currently in price dynamics).

Daily: technically up, but behaviour on 151 must be still watched very carefully.
We unfortunately have little more to say today:
SPY now hit PR2 (61.8% Fib retracement) and hovered there. MTFS is however bullish now so SPY could well reach next Fib target (just above 153).
We must however as always remain very cautious. Continuation of congestion or even a retracement are quite possible in the short term.

Weekly: Upper bias
MTFS is unreadable because of the low significance level, hence one should not pay too much attention to the lines down gradients.
For the time being, higher highs and higher lows are bullish signs, with due caution that moves in the last 6 months have been way too fast for this time frame.