Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 12th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: DN-DN-UP (from UP-UP-UP)
Market Direction: Support must be found (2062?) - no change in overall direction just yet.

Yesterday's warning was certainly warranted, and the drop after the Fed announcement was quite interesting to follow on a 5 minutes chart. At this point in time, it pays off to go lower in time frames (all have a significance level higher than these ones)

60mins: high volatility - good possibility of a bounce once support is found.
After indeed hitting a high at 2147, NDX took a bit of a knock to close around Fib PR2 (61.8%). Should this level now break, since there is still some negative sentiment, NDX could well go lower to the 2062 pivot level.
MTFS is again not showing a clear pattern, which may indicate continuation of a congestion in a high volatility environment.

Daily: Up
Despite yesterday's drop, the pattern remains unchanged, and the bar even remained blue. We may have a second down day, but surprisingly one cannot say there is a retracement coming.
One should obviously be cautious, but not bearish quite yet.

Weekly: congested to moderately up
Significance level is low, but NDX is still in its channel, Swing is UP and the weekly bar is not red.