Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 19th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-UP)
Cycles: long cycle turning up - low to avg significance level
Market Direction: No strong rebound on 2000

Again, it is more fun on 5 and 10mins time frames. Users of the technique generally select 2 or 3 time frames among 6 to determine the best trading environment.

60mins: No strong rebound on 2000.
After testing stall level early in the day, traders pushed the market down to 2000. However bears momentarily left their position after a quick skirmish on support level.
EntBin was at -3 at the bottom on 2000 but MTFS lines didn't cross in a "clean" way. NDX should stay in the same range and possibly test a support level again (2016?)

Daily:
2000 has been hit, but what next...? I'm afraid we have to wait a few more days (i.e. after triple witching). Like for the 60mins chart, we cannot expect any strong rebound.

Weekly: Check channel boundary
While significance level is low, this mostly affects MTFS. We can still notice that NDX is touching the lower part of its channel, and the weekly bar is red. Caution should be exercised at these levels.