Market Outlook SPY for Dec 3rd '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN (from UP-UP-DN)
Market direction: congestion.

Like NDX, the market aimed at reaching 150, but unlike NDX, SPY held up nicely, and closed where expected i.e. ~ 148.40

60mins: congestion to mildly down
The recovery that was earlier stopped on PR1 (from previous down leg), this time extended to stall level i.e. short of strong MM resistance, half way between intermediate resistance (white dots) and upper resistance level. Such 150 level remains a target, but energy is now exhausting, and MTFS is also weakening. So, despite the upper bias, there is virtually no chance SPY passes 150 in the short term.

Daily: congestion to mildly up
With now both 60mins and daily chart with equivalent significance levels, and a MTFS pattern that is typical of a failed recovery, it is not easy to make head or tail of this market. Entropy on both charts also aim at different directions.
As mentioned on previous post, we'll have to wait for a pattern to develop, possibly a cup & handle formation. There is however no downward pressure right now, so difficult to estimate where a stronger support level will be found.

Weekly: congestion - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range slightly downward biased. Failure to pass the 150 strong resistance level would become alarming if significance level wasn't so low.