Sunday, December 02, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 3rd '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, but 15 mins charts
Swings: UP-UP-UP (from UP-UP-DN)
Market direction: Good recovery potential but lack of energy in the short term.

Spot on: congestion was indeed expected after almost the 2125 MM target.
Again the high level of volatility then allowed a significant retracement.

60mins: congestion to mild retracement.

After reaching for 2125, NDX fell right down to Fib PR1.
There is however no positive energy to have any strong bounce on this Fib level, so NDX should remain in the same [2070-2100] trading range with a mild lower bias.

Daily: mildly up
The daily chart shows the clearest pattern of all 3, but unfortunately isn't the most significant time frame, so may find it difficult to reach its target in the short term. Again this pattern only has a limited upward potential because of the low green line. It is only if/once 2125 is passed that NDX will likely return to the overall bullish trend and reach Fib targets (2140 first), with 2250 being very significant (strong MM resistance as well).

Weekly: trading range
NDX is firmly back in its channel. However current movements are too fast for this time frame at the moment, explaining the low significance level (53%).