Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 4th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins, but 15 mins charts
Swings: DN-UP-UP (from UP-UP-DN)
Market direction: Good recovery potential but lack of energy in the short term.

Not far off yesterday, and a retracement of 1% can be be seen as moderate when it comes to NDX.

60mins: congestion to mild retracement.

Continuation of price erosion until a support is found. Despite closing at 2067, 2070 may hold, otherwise a little lower to next MM/Fib level. There is however no real downward pressure.

Daily: mildly up
Similar analysis:
The daily chart shows the clearest pattern of all 3, but unfortunately isn't the most significant time frame, so may find it difficult to reach its target in the short term. Again this pattern only has a limited upward potential because of the low green line. It is only if/once 2125 is passed that NDX will likely return to the overall bullish trend and reach Fib targets (2140 first), with 2250 being very significant (strong MM resistance as well).
Note: a pivot 5 is being detected on 2125, so failure to reach 2125 may soon translate into a down swing.

Weekly: trading range
NDX is firmly back in its channel. However current movements are too fast for this time frame at the moment, explaining the low significance level (53%).