Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 4th '07


Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from DN-UP-DN)
Market direction: congestion.

SPY is hovering between levels, and only has lost all positive energy, hence is drifting.

60mins: congestion to mildly down

One can only anticipate the same moderate price erosion until support is found. Despite being the dominant time frame, there isn't much to read in MTFS and Entropy except there isn't much downward pressure either.

Daily: congestion to mildly up
Similar situation as yesterday:
With now both 60mins and daily chart with equivalent significance levels, and a MTFS pattern that is typical of a failed recovery, it is not easy to make head or tail of this market. Entropy on both charts also aim at different directions.
We now have to wait for a pattern to develop, possibly a cup & handle formation. There is however no downward pressure right now, so difficult to estimate where a stronger support level will be found. At the same time, we also have to reach 150 again soon otherwise the 'failed recovery' pattern will become a more likely possibility.

Weekly: congestion - very low significance level.
This time frame has such a low significance level it is almost pointless reading it. We can only rely on the Swing indicator as well as MM and Fib levels. For the time being, it is safe to say that we are in a broad trading range with a downward bias. Failure to pass the 150 strong resistance level would become alarming if significance level wasn't so low.