Market Outlook RUT for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: weekly & 60mins to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: Mildly down. Possible congestion in [800-812] trading range
It seems like the market has now given up on the 812.50 key level, and now is momentarily pausing.
A new support must be found lower (Fib pattern forming).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, probable congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is certainly losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is finally passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again. Retracement is however likely, without even impacting the overall trend.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral. Probable congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both indicating congestion with negative bias. SPY is likely to remain in a trading range, and possibly retrace a bit if the market gives up on the 153.50 key level.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP, until resistance is truly tested. Probable congestion.

60mins: neutral with possible congestion to minor retracement.
NDX remains somewhat bullish and the 2125 target certainly looks close enough. There is however congestion around 2094 (MM stall level on shorter time frames). Entropy also turned negative, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some retracement, NDX could test 2078 - 2080 first.

Daily: mildly UP. Congestion, due to extreme overbought situation.
NDX looks very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. AdStoK have now joined in extreme overbought territory, Entropy could peak soon, so one has to watch for a possible congestion to minor profit taking. No change in trend though.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM resistance level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: none
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up. Possible congestion.
The major 812.50 resistance level is still valid but the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) is now about completed with still some upward momentum in store. RUT's behaviour around this key level is crucial to forthcoming direction (will this resistance be broken today?).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2078 - 2080.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK is fairly bullish but overbought, and Entropy is picking up a little again. The major resistance level is however now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range, or even a turnaround in the next couple of days. Key level remains 153.50

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up
The major 812.50 resistance level is still there and the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) seems to stall before completion (lines crossing). Entropy is also peaking. Consequently, probable congestion to mild upward bias ahead. 812 remains the key level for RUT's forthcoming direction.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK is showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156. One must just check for possible weakening of Entropy, and the major resistance level is now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP.
Same as yesterday, NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2076 - 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up
The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and Stronger support has been found as anticipated (MM+Fib), and we can now see a recovery coming ("U" shape pattern), at least until 812.50 is tested again. Possible pause half-way at 805.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but also bumpy or wavy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
The significance level is lower on this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP
The 151.50 level seems to hold, and AdStoK is now showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156.
The Swing indicator should turn around soon, but one should not anticipate any strong up move in the short term.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, but not to worry at least until AdStoK line cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: mildly UP to UP, depending on behaviour on resistance level.
NDX is certainly bullish but the 60mins chart is no longer the dominant chart (possible divergence) and Entropy is not very strong.
NDX should carry on going up, but it will have to pass strong resistance levels, at the moment 8 points apart, the next one being at 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. (Possible divergence then?) This is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now. One can only anticipate more difficulty reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly!
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly Down, til support is found
The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and RUT has now retraced a bit. Support must now be found either now at 805 or 797-799 (or -1%) which would provide a stronger foundation to go higher.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but the pattern while getting clearer is not the easiest to read. The significance level is low at this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, possible congestion.
NDX started the day quite bullish to a Fib level (lower time frame) but the 2062 key level held, then NDX retraced a bit.
It should now remain in the higher part of the same 2030 - 2060 trading range.
Strange enough, the Swing indicator is still Down, indicating a possible congestion.

Daily: neutral to UP
AdStoK remains bullish and Entropy has picked up steam again. While there can be some hesitation when testing new highs, there is no indication of any retracement going forward.

Weekly: UP ?
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. Possible divergence then? One could perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but this is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til bounce on support
Same as yesterday: support must be found either now on 151.50 or lower 150 (i.e. -1%). There is still some negative bias, and 150 is a stronger Fib level.
There is no indication SPY will then go lower. A new Fib pattern may form to give a 156 target.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
Same as yesterday: AdStoK is certainly bullish although also slighlty overbought. The AdStoK pattern is fairly clear, until the Green Line joins the White Line at least. With some weakening in the white line as well as Entropy, SPY may crawl to 153.50. It should test highs later on.
Likely range: 150 to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has turned UP and the chart certainly looks more bullish, but one has to first see what will happen when July highs are truly tested...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 24th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly Down.
The major 812.50 resistance level is key to future movement. In short time frames, it has worked as new support.
AdStoK and Entropy show signs of a weakening so we could see some hovering at these levels, but it is likely that a lower support must be found. 812 may hold, otherwise 805 or 797-799 will provide a stronger foundation to go higher.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but the pattern while getting clearer is not the easiest to read. The significance level is low at this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has just turned UP, and Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this key level. One should take cues from the 60mins chart in the short term.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 24th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to UP.
NDX is still aiming at 2062 but has difficulties getting there.
We can however confirm a support on 2031, so NDX should carry on testing highs, or remain in the higher part of the same 2030 - 2060 trading range.
Strange enough, the Swing indicator is still Down, indicating a possible congestion.

Daily: neutral to up.
Entropy is slightly weakening further indicating some difficulty going higher. AdStoK remains very bullish so there should not be any serious retracement going forward if any.
We however have to be cautious ahead of an importance resistance level.

Weekly: UP ?
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is very weak.
One should perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but no panic just yet...
Note that in such (long term) case, Fib PR1 is 1825, and the mid pivot (Fib + MM) is 1750.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 24th '07

NOTE: MID patterns are too correlated to RUT to warrant a separate analysis. MID charts will therefore no longer be posted.

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly up.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til support is found.
AdStoK and Entropy show some retracement potential to 875 (maybe 870) to find support and possibly go higher later on.

Daily: neutral to UP
AdStoK is bullish and the pattern is slowly getting clearer. We can now anticipate a slow bumpy up move until lines cross.
Probable range: 875 to 906, to ... 937.50. However 937 is unlikely in the short to mid term.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation.
MID could reach 906 then July highs, then 937. A Fib pattern seems to take shape too with a target close to previous highs.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 24th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN
AdStoK and Entropy Entropy both show some slowing, indicating we have to check for the next Fib and/or MM support level: 151.50 or maybe 150
There is no indication SPY will go lower. If support is rapidly found, a Fib pattern may form to give a 156 target.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK is certainly bullish although also overbought.
Should we see a pause or some mild profit taking, SPY could remain around 153 or find support around 150.
Likely range: 150 to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon (the AdStoK pattern is fairly clear, until the Green Line joins the White Line at least).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has turned UP and the chart certainly looks more bullish, but one has to first see what will happen when July highs are truly tested...

Market Outlook MID for Sep 21th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly up.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til support is found.
AdStoK and Entropy show some retracement potential to 875 (maybe 870) to find support and possibly go higher later on.

Daily: neutral to UP
AdStoK is bullish but the pattern is not very clear, and Entropy is not helping. Strange enough, the Swing indicator shows signs of turning. One can therefore anticipate a modest increase at best.
Probable range: 875 to 906.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation.
MID could reach 906 then July highs, then 937. A Fib pattern seems to take shape too with a target close to previous highs.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 21th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN
AdStoK and Entropy Entropy both show some mild retracement potential, so we have to check for the next Fib and/or MM support level: 151.50 or maybe 150
There is no indication SPY will go lower. If support is rapidly found, a Fib pattern may form to give a 156 target.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK is certainly bullish although also overbought.
Should we see a pause or some mild profit taking, SPY could remain around 153 or find support around 150.
Likely range: 150 to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet (due to high vol.), but the chart certainly looks more bullish. One has to first see what will happen when highs are tested...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 21th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til support is found.
The major 812.50 resistance level has held despite the strong open on Sep 19th.
AdStoK and Entropy show signs of a weakening and a support must be found now (Swing is UP). One can be tempted to think 805 was the support yesterday, but AdStoK has a negative gradient, and one cannot discard 797 - 799 to be a stronger support.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but the line separation may indicate some increased volatility at these new levels.
RUT may well reach 827 after some support is found. Should we see some profit taking, RUT will find support around 800.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation.
Entropy might bottom up this week, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. At the same time, RUT may just as well follow another leading index like SPX.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 21th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to UP.

60mins: neutral to DN, til support is found.
NDX is still aiming at 2062 but there isn't much momentum left in the short term.
Entropy exhausted and even turned negative, and AdStoK also show a mild negative gradient.
For the time being, support has been found on 2031 but should there be more substantial profit taking, NDX could drop to 2016 or maybe even back to 2000 which is unlikely.

Daily: neutral to up.
Entropy is slightly weakening further indicating some difficulty going higher. AdStoK remains very bullish so there should not be any serious retracement going forward if any.

Weekly: ?
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is very weak.
One should perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but no panic just yet...
Note that in such (long term) case, PR1 is 1825, and the mid pivot is 1750.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 20th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins:
AdStoK is pausing a little, but remains bullish.
However, Entropy is historically very high so should peak shortly.
To go higher, some support will have to be found first, probably around 153, but should there be substantial profit taking, which is very unlikely: 148.
After a good support is found, SPY could reach 156.

Daily:
AdStoK is certainly bullish although overbought.
Should we see some profit taking, SPY will find support around 150, otherwise 147. The possible range is therefore: 150 (maybe 147) to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet (due to high vol.), but the chart certainly looks more bullish. One has to first see what will happen when highs are tested...

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 20th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins:
NDX is aiming at 2062 but understandably has difficulty passing July highs.
Entropy is historically high so should peak shortly.
To go higher, some support will have to be found first, probably on 2031, but should there be substantial profit taking, which is very unlikely: 2016, or maybe even 2000.

Daily:
Entropy is weakening indicating a possible pause in this bull move. AdStoK remains very bullish so there should not be any serious retracement going forward.

Weekly:
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is quite weak.
One should perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but no panic just yet...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 20th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly!
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly up.

60mins:
RUT passed the major 812.50 level, yet it is not quite broken yet. The 820 was a Fib level in a lower time frame.
AdStoK indicates a pause on the way up and Entropy has peaked while remaining strong.
The 812.50 level must be tested for support.
At this stage, there is no reason for RUT to go lower.

Daily:
AdStoK is obviously bullish but the line separation may indicate some volatility at these new levels. RUT may well reach 827 after some support is found.
Should we see some profit taking, RUT will find support around 800.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation.
Shorter time frames should take the lead soon, but RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 20th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly up.

60mins:
AdStoK is overbought territory indicates MID could pause for a while, and even retrace to 875 to find support on previous resistance, also a PR1 Fib level now.
Entropy is historically high so could peak soon.
MID can reach 906, but 875 is equally likely.

Daily:
AdStoK is bullish but the pattern is not very clear, and Entropy is not helping. One can therefore anticipate a modest increase at best.
Probable range: 875 to 906.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation.
MID could reach 906 then July highs, then 937, but iy is likely that 875, or maybe 858 be tested for support first.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly!
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: mildly up.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped RUT break levels happily to pass the important 800 MM level, on its way to the major 812.50 level.
AdStoK and Entopy are quite bullish and indicate that next resistance level should be tested soon.

Daily:
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend recover and join the party. One should wait for 800 to be clearly passed and 812 to be tested first.
Should we see some profit taking, or continuation of the trading range, RUT will find support around 797, then 781 in the worst case scenario.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation, and once 800 / 812 levels are clearly broken, RUT will be heading towards previous highs and maybe up to 875.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (or intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped NDX break levels happily to pass the important 2000 MM level, to reach a Fib level close to 2040. AdStoK is quite bullish (although overbought), but while Entropy could keep growing, it may in fact peak soon.
Major resistance level is now 2062 which is higher than July highs! Some support will have to be found first, either 2031, 2016, or maybe even 2000.

Daily:
The extraordinary move we've had is not quite accompanied by a stronger Entropy. The rate cut should however translate into a higher trading range now: 2000 (possibly 1980) to 2040 (possibly 2055).

Weekly:
Even after this rate cut, there is only some minor upward bias left (Entropy), so it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...
This time frame is not very significant right now, so one should take cues from the daily chart for now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped SPY break the 150 level to now head toward 155 / 156, with a possible pause on the way at 153.
AdStoK turned very positive, so did Entropy.
Should there be some profit taking, 150 (maybe 149.50) would be tested for support.

Daily:
The Fed cut does not eliminate market risk (subprime etc), and should therefore not be interpreted as a "pass" to new highs.
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend join the party. One should wait for 150 tested for support to see higher prices.
Should we see some profit taking, SPY will find support around 150, otherwise 147. The possible range is therefore: 150 (maybe 147) to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet (due to high vol.), but the chart certainly looks bullish. Negative entropy should be exhausted to be fully reassured though.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (or intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: mildly UP to UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped MID break levels happily to pass the important 875 MM level.
AdStoK turned very positive, so did Entropy.
MID can now reach 890 to 895.

Daily:
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend join the party. One should wait for 877 to be clearly passed and possible tested for support to see higher prices.
Should we see some profit taking, or continuation of the trading range, MID will find support around 855, then 843.
On the up side, 890 then 906.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation, and once 875 / 880 level is clearly broken, MID will be heading towards previous highs and maybe up to 937.

Technical look into the Swing indicator (ADVANCED)

--- ADVANCED TOPIC ---

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market direction: Mildly Down.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) at 787 and settled just above MM pivot at 781, after hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is neutral to bearish, and Entropy also mildly negative.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is a neutral to negative bias ahead of the news.
Return to 773 then 766 is possible.

Daily:
AdStoK gives us some indication of a slight negative bias, but nothing clear really, which is understandable in this trading range ahead of a much anticipated news. Entropy is however down and negative. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 765 to 800, then 812.5 on the up side, 750 on the down side. 750 and 812 are KEY LEVELS in both directions.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor downward bias, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend after a bounce on the 750 support level.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery has stalled short of the 150 level. AdStoK is weaker now, but Entropy while negative gives us no clear direction. Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be a retracement to Fib PR1 (147.50), or even down to Fib and MM Pivot around 146.8
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is some negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it could here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 145 (maybe 142) to 150, then 153 and 155.50 (July highs)

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed announcement, there is some modest upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...
One should take cues from the dominant TF which is the 60mins chart.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped a couple of days ago on 2000 which is not a major Fib level (at this time frame), but is a major psychological MM level. NDX then fell a little to between a PR1 at 1981 and and MM intermediate level at 1984. AdStoK and Entropy are now somewhat pointing down. AdStoK is around the median zone with a negative gradient.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is certainly a negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be upward bias conditional to passing the resistance level. With Entropy coming down, it seems NDX will have no momentum left to break 2000, so a
Possible range: 1980 to 2025, then 2025 on the up side... or around 1945 on the down side....

Weekly:
No clear direction ahead of the Fed announcement. There is some minor upward bias left, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...
This time frame is not very significant right now, so one should take cues from the 60mins chart for now.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped a couple of days ago on Fib PR2 (61.8%) and MID is now mildly pointing down. AdStoK is around the median zone with a negative gradient. Entropy is now also definitely negative.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a neutral to negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be congestion or trading range, with a negative bias (white line separation and negative entropy).
Possible range: 843 to 875, then 812 on the down side, for 906 on the up side.

Weekly:
No clear direction ahead of the Fed announcement. Note that there may be 2 opposite Fib patterns. The first one drawn manually gives price targets close to 800 then 750. The one calculated automatically on the contrary gives 800 then 930. We should know soon enough...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but very slightly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: Neutral to Down.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) at 787 and settled just above MM pivot at 781, after hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is neutral to bullish, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slightly upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is down and negative. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 765 to 800, then 812.5 on the up side, 750 on the down side. 750 and 812 are KEY LEVELS in both directions.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor downward bias, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend after a bounce on the 750 support level.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but sligtly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Up to Neutral.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) as well as MM pivot, and has been hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is fairly strong, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Upward bias given by AdStoK, and Entropy is still strong, even though declining a bit. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 1980 to 2025, then 2025 on the up side.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...

Market Outlook MID for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but sligtly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped at Fib PR2 (61.8%) and has been hovering around 862 for a while. AdStoK is fairly strong, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 843 to 875, then 812 on the down side, for 906 on the up side.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but slightly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery has stalled short of the 150 level. AdStoK is strong, but Entropy has now turned negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is a negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 145 (maybe 143) to 150

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
Dominant time frame.
AdStoK is looking good but white line is already overbought, indicating a lack of momentum to go much higher. Entropy is also very much hesitant.

This narrow trading range is bound by:
Support: 781
Resistance: 788, then 797 although it seems it won't have enough steam to get there.

Daily:
Same trading range, with a weak negative bias.
The 800 then 812.5 key levels must be broken to see a clear direction emerging.
On the down side, 781, then 765... down to maybe 750.

Weekly:
Negative bias is getting stronger, but no panic just yet (the dominant time frame is the 60 mins chart right now).
RUT can very well bounce on the Daily support levels above.

All 3 Swings are down.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
Dominant time frame.
Upward bias is still there: SPY like all major indices, is trying to reach its key level before the Fed announcement.
Not sure whether it can make it to ~150 by Monday though.

Daily:
Upward bias is somewhat weaker here.

Weekly:
Nothing new... the trading range can almost equally be broken either way.

Note that all 3 Swings are down though, hence this may mean that the market is trying to reach a key level to then retrace significantly, in which case the target prices would be 143 then (137.50 - 139).

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 14th '07

60mins:
AdStoK is still looking good, while Entropy is weakening.
This causes NDX to be stuck in a narrow trading range around key pivot levels (1998 - 2000).
Nothing to expect in the short term: continuation of the same trading range with an upward bias for now.
Max retracement: 1981
Max breakout: 2025 - 2031

Daily:
Same analysis, with slightly stronger upward bias, subject to the current resistance level.
The upward potential is higher, maybe up to the July highs (could take just a couple of days after the Fed Announcement on Monday).

Weekly:
Take cues from lower time frames to assess which direction NDX will follow, i.e. breakout of current resistance to go higher.... or double top... ?

For the time being, all Swings are up.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 14th '07

Short description of the Swing indicator

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 13th '07

Market Outlook MID for Sep 13th '07

Detecting market direction without the Swing indicator

The Swing indicator would certainly help, but let's first try and detect market directions by just interpreting at two of indicators: the HA modified PaintBar and the MM support/resistance levels.

These 2 indicators require no parameters, and do not back-adjust like our Swing indicator.