Friday, September 14, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 14th '07

Dominant time frame.
AdStoK is looking good but white line is already overbought, indicating a lack of momentum to go much higher. Entropy is also very much hesitant.

This narrow trading range is bound by:
Support: 781
Resistance: 788, then 797 although it seems it won't have enough steam to get there.

Same trading range, with a weak negative bias.
The 800 then 812.5 key levels must be broken to see a clear direction emerging.
On the down side, 781, then 765... down to maybe 750.

Negative bias is getting stronger, but no panic just yet (the dominant time frame is the 60 mins chart right now).
RUT can very well bounce on the Daily support levels above.

All 3 Swings are down.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 14th '07

Dominant time frame.
Upward bias is still there: SPY like all major indices, is trying to reach its key level before the Fed announcement.
Not sure whether it can make it to ~150 by Monday though.

Upward bias is somewhat weaker here.

Nothing new... the trading range can almost equally be broken either way.

Note that all 3 Swings are down though, hence this may mean that the market is trying to reach a key level to then retrace significantly, in which case the target prices would be 143 then (137.50 - 139).

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 14th '07

AdStoK is still looking good, while Entropy is weakening.
This causes NDX to be stuck in a narrow trading range around key pivot levels (1998 - 2000).
Nothing to expect in the short term: continuation of the same trading range with an upward bias for now.
Max retracement: 1981
Max breakout: 2025 - 2031

Same analysis, with slightly stronger upward bias, subject to the current resistance level.
The upward potential is higher, maybe up to the July highs (could take just a couple of days after the Fed Announcement on Monday).

Take cues from lower time frames to assess which direction NDX will follow, i.e. breakout of current resistance to go higher.... or double top... ?

For the time being, all Swings are up.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 14th '07