Monday, November 30, 2009

Market update - Midday 30/11/09

11:30 AM Eastern.

I assume you have now noticed the test level on ES mentioned earlier and took a short. Some would have even gone for a options butterfly or placed breakout orders.

EURUSD is also behaving as anticipated.

Weekly Report - Nov 30th to Dec 4th '09

On Friday, ES bounced to 1095 (cf report) responding again pretty well to MM/Fib levels. The Dubai pseudo-bankrupcy was obviously a non-event to manipulate markets on a light volume day. Some traders have made a LOT of money on that kind of hoax.

Anyway, looking at the forthcoming week, we are still in the same daily channel even though the "confusion factor"is increasing. This 1095 area is again a test level to try and test highs again around 1110 or follow the down Fib expansion pattern visible on the 60mins chart. In any case, we have only 2 scenarios either the channel on the daily chart hits 1125, or the pullback starts on current levels (with a high of 1112). In this uncertain environment, an upper bias is likely at first.

TF tested its MM/Fib target around 562, then bounced to 579 which a test level (also Fib/MM). It is following the same dynamics as ES and despite the same upward bias in the short term, lows should be tested again by mid week.

To be quite honest though, I would wait for the market to settle a bit after the long weekend, so a mid day update would be justified.

EURUSD: hit stall level on 1.507 with some residual buying pressure. A lower time frame would be recommended to pick a reversal short signal which could take prices back to 1.496 later on. We will monitor MM/Fib levels when the MTFS is completed and sellers take control. Profit taking should remain limited.

( posted late 8:20 AM UK )