Friday, April 18, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 - Apr 18th 2008

cf. similar SPY post below.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 18th 2008

cf. SPY similar post below for guidance.

Market Outlook SPY for Apr 18th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Cycles: fairly good fit, but unreliable still
Market Direction (daily): unclear, congestion
Position (60mins): target in sight

On our last post (Apr 15th), we warned about tightening stops but the subsequent reversal (Apr 16th) admittely surprised us by its strength.

Shorting SPY following the 60mins chart was a good move indeed, which move maybe surprised us by its strength. A bit of hesitation yesterday, what to expect today?

60mins: resistance level in sight
SPY stopped its rise on stall level, and is now inches away from strong resistance level. It may go a little higher to previous highs, but energy is dissipating so no major breakout to expect.

Daily: congestion
SPY bounced on the 50% retracement and now could well test MM levels or even previous highs. MTFS and Entropy are however still pointing for congestion at best.

Weekly: on its way to test Fib level again.
Entropy is improving indicating more and more clearly that the worst is probably behind us. Yet we have to see how SPY behaves on PR1 Fib level (38.2%). significance level is high on the MTFS, indicating we're still in 'soft landing' mode more than in recovery mode, hence SPY should stay in the 130s for some time still.