Monday, October 15, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily & Weekly
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: congestion, possibly mildly Up

60mins: a bit of roller-coaster... or congestion with price erosion.

We here have the same indecision as for SPY, however with a lower entropy.
The 843 resistance level may prove to hard to break, which would trigger a new test of recent lows (831). One may just as well stay in a trading range [836-843].

The same caution expressed last Friday still applies going forward: One must watch the coming trading range very closely as it could form an interesting pattern (head and shoulder? double top?). Too early to say, so reading too much between the (AdStoK) lines could lead to unfounded speculation.

Daily: Congestion to mildly up.
AdStoK is very overbought and is now showing some weakness. The white line crossover will give us interesting information shortly. Entropy is lower and the dialy bar has turned yellow.
There is no reason to panic just yet, but the slowdown should soon be confirmed.
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
Support: 828 (likely), then 812 (unlikely in the short term).

Weekly: mildly up until...
It was clear RUT would hit 851 (highs + Fib) but what is now coming next? AdStoK and Entropy do not point lower, so one should not panic just yet. RUT is likely to hold or even go higher. Strong MM resistance is still 875.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Congestion. Upward bias still valid.

60mins: Possible congestion with upward bias. 156.25 is a pivot level to watch in the near term.

This AdStoK pattern is not the easiest to read, as we have really no energy left right now (non existent Entropy), so it may require a bit of a 'shock' to move either way. A trading range [154.60-158-50] is likely for the time being.

Daily: mildly up.
AdStoK is so overbought with a white line declining, but Entropy is still holding quite well. This is not indicative of any strong retracement in the near term.
We could however have some increased volatility in the next few days, and a direction then emerging more clearly. Until then the upward bias is still valid.

Weekly: mildly UP.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should remain mildly up for the time being as AdStoK lines are now crossing with a strong up gradient.