Friday, July 11, 2008


Today was the last day for my daily snapshots. I hope they proved valuable to you in your trading in the last 12 months or so. There is however always a realistic limit to what should be offered for free, particularly when it comes to market trading. Hence, from now on, only a weekly study on ER2 and ES will be posted on this public blog. A private blog ( will now be the container for daily market outlooks and personalised market studies can be arranged on request.

Enjoy your holiday,


Market Snapshot for SPY - Jul 11th 2008

cf. ER2 post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jul 11th 2008

cf. ER2 post below for guidance.

Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for Jul 11th '08

Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): short to flat
Position (60mins): flat
Options (RUT): 625 or lower for July puts (625 will not be hit).

Yesterday's post on SPY was quite clear about the fight we would have on 125. This tug of war may actually not be over quite yet.

On ER2, last post was also correct, with the recommendation to look for an exit point on the 60mins chart (a low of 650 was hit) and the fall is probably entering the congestion period as mentioned.

NB: This is the last *FREE* daily snapshot.

60mins: congestion with a very slight upper bias
This is not our dominant time frame by far, but significance levels are very high on 5 to 15mins time frames for those interested in intraday play.
Here we'll notice the down channel being broken then the upper boundary being tested again, so ER2 might try and go higher now, but MTFS and Entropy do not suggest any buying frenzy so a congestion is also possible.

Daily: bottom or temporary congestion only?
Last time, i said that it would take at the very least a few days until Entropy bottoms up and that the fall may slow down or even enter a congestion period near lows. Now that we are there, all we can say is that MTFS show an early line crossover indicating indecision around current levels. ER2 should see continuation of this congestion period until MTFS gives us a recovery pattern. This may take more up to a week.

Weekly: bearish but no panic just yet
No change from last post. As mentioned previously, we are now seeing the development of a down Fib pattern aiming straight at MM support level (~625). Since the MTFS pattern is not overly bearish, the Fib pattern can still fail. We will therefore also look for a possible support level along the way i.e. somewhere between current stall level (656) and strong support level (625).