Monday, February 16, 2009

Weekly Report on ES - Feb 16th to 20th '09

Last week, i forewarned that ES was certainly not out of the woods and could sink further. We're now back to the crucial 812 test level and the picture has not improved a bit. We'll certainly give this support level a chance to hold even the outlook certainly looks a little bleak...

ES 60mins: Aiming at support level (also Fib target), it is difficult to assess whether buyers will come back to the party at this level. The next stronger level is otherwise ~796. Even if current level holds, nothing indicates a possible bounce at this stage, so the most likely scenario is a continuation of this messy trading range.

ES Daily: Not looking too good here either. ES could really sink deep... down to the mid 720s i.e. close to November lows! Having said that, should 812 break, there should be substantial fighting in the 780 area.

ES Weekly: Longer term context is somewhat bearish too. However, despite bars being decidedly red, there is some support around bar lows, so we may avoid the all gloom and doom scenario still. For the time being, staying on the side line is probably the safest bet here until we see a MTFS line crossover, blue bars and a better looking Entropy.

( posted 7:10 AM UK )

Weekly Report on ER - Feb 16th to 20th '09

Going back to last week's report, we had a chance to go long and short to end up lower than last week. As I said, the picture did not look too rosy and we're still in that same messy congestive situation, fixating on our key 437 level to determine which scenario will prevail in the end.

ER 60mins: Failed to pass the pivot level around 453 so we're stuck in the lower part of our trading range for now. Again i insist that the [433-437] support range will be key. Should it break, ER will be in serious trouble. The lower parts of the trading range should be tested again so let's give it a chance so long...

ER Daily: Same messy picture. Here too, 437 looks strong enough to hold even if we don't anticipate any change in dynamics, hence no substantial buying to support any form of recovery. Selling pressure or lack of buying could send ER down to the next support levels just above 400 or even around high 380s again.

ER Weekly: Not looking too good here either. We certainly don't want to look at what would happen if our support levels collapsed. Let's not all think grim though. As mentioned above at daily level, we'll go with the flow until next support level is reached.

( posted 6:30 AM UK )