Friday, March 07, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Mar 7th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Mar 7th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Outlook NDX for Mar 7th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins, then Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): down, unless support is found soon...
Position (60mins): same March condor until expiration.

The 1750 level has been tested for resistance, only to go south again. Only too predictable...

60mins: bearish
Support level around 1688 is now in sight. MTFS and Entropy are certainly pointing down, so NDX will first reach the 1700s (Fib target and MM stall level). We'll then see if/how buyers react on and close to the strong support level.

Daily: will a support be found?
NDX is now trying to test previous lows again but 1750 technically is penetrated but not quite broken yet. The support level at 1688 on the 60mins chart, very very close to Jan 23rd lows, now seems to be the last possible support for the current trading range. Could it bounce? Well, hard to believe, but a minute chance exists still.
MTFS is bearish, but Entropy does not show much energy on the down side either so one could still hope for mere congestion at this low level, at least for now.

Weekly: quite bearish, and 1750 must be watched very closely.
Indeed no reason to be optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and there is always a chance that 1750 will hold (penetrated but technically not broken).
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640, looking every day more plausible...