Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX - Apr 9th 2008

cf. RUT post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 9th 2008

cf. RUT post below for guidance.

Market Outlook RUT for Apr 9th '08

Dominant TF: weekly and 60mins charts
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: fairly good fit but very unreliable (low signal/noise ratio)
Market Direction: same [688-719] trading range.
Position (60mins): flat to short
Short Apr760 Calls, Long Apr770 Calls,
Long Apr570 Puts, Short Apr580 Puts

Last RUT post was correct, so was NDX yesterday. RUT has been hovering near the upper range boundary, and should stay there in the near term.

EURUSD is up again but we'll still keep an eye on EURUSD key level : 1.5625

60mins: Hesitation on resistance level
MTFS is giving us a line crossover with a mild gradient. Entropy also shows a lack of steam at this level, so we may have some erosion to a possible retracement to PR1 around 706, but nothing major.

Daily: looking better but...
after a good looking recovery in the last few weeks, we're now close to this year's highs in the 720s. MTFS is not looking too bad but line separation and high Entropy indicate a likely pause or retracement coming. Nothing serious though as the green line is now confirming the recovery. Like on the 60mins chart, we can therefore expect some hesitation near range highs. In case of profit taking, we will check Fib levels for support.

Weekly: congestion to down bias
RUT is now about up to Fib PR1, and this certainly alleviates the downward pressure we've had for a few months. Yet, we'll have to wait for complete dissipation of 'bearishness' and this can still take over a month.
In the meantime, RUT should stay in the same range, hence fairly easy to trade with a conservative iron condor (see above).