Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 - Apr 15th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for NDX - Apr 15th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance.

Market Outlook SPY for Apr 15th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: unclear, lower bias
Position (60mins): still short, tightening stops

Shorting SPY following the 60mins chart was a good move indeed, which move maybe surprised us by its strength.

60mins: looking for support
SPY is trying to find support on current levels, yet it could well test stall level around 132. We do indeed notice new MM levels with a narrower range (higher support level). This may mean that 131.25 will ultimately hold if tested again. MTFS is still somewhat bearish, so this should translate in a soft landing around these low levels.

Daily: looking for support
Last time, i anticipated a moderate retracement, but such retracement may take SPY a little lower, so we'll check for Fib levels for possible support.
MTFS seems to indicate the retracement should be contained though. Significance level being lower at this time frame, we won't read too much here and rather concentrate on concordance of likely support levels (~131).

Weekly: again, no significant change yet.
After hitting PR1 (38.2% retracement), SPY is nw consolidating, again until the negative pressure eventually dissipates over time.
The MTFS pattern does not show any recovery potential just yet, but any possible down move going forward should now be cushioned (~131 support also?).