Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Feb 11th 2008

cf SPY post below

Market Snapshot for NDX - Feb 11th 2008

cf. SPY post below

Market Outlook SPY for Feb 11th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins, with Daily weakening
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction: down in the longer term, price erosion or congestion with lower bias in the short term

No major change since last SPY post. There is however a feeling the fall may be over. It could be a deceptive impression even if volatility has indeed momentarily come down.

60mins: congestion with slight upper bias
SPY has tested 132 and bounced back a little. There is no energy to take it much higher right now. One shall also notice MM strong support level is now on 137.50, and trading range is now considerably reduced, with a strong support level unchanged at 125.
Most likely outlook is congestion with a very slight upper bias that could eventually take SPY to a PR1 Fib retracement around 134.50 but that remains to be seen...

Daily: continuation of slow erosion for now
The scenario has hardly changed. Recovery failed, and SPY is now slowly coming down. There is little energy either way though. One will keep in mind the MM and Fib targets. SPY could eventually reach a first Fib target just below 130.
Significance level is falling, so one will need to take cues from lower time frames, even in the unlikely event of a Fib pattern emerging north (low:126, high:140, Ret:132)

Weekly: bottom?
Despite the MTFS white line 'hooking up' slightly, and Entropy appearing to have found a bottom, both show a bearish background picture. So we may have a bit of a reprieve, but the negative tone is certainly still there, and we're still aiming at a cup&handle or W pattern formation... or worse.