Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up

The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and Stronger support has been found as anticipated (MM+Fib), and we can now see a recovery coming ("U" shape pattern), at least until 812.50 is tested again. Possible pause half-way at 805.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but also bumpy or wavy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
The significance level is lower on this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP

The 151.50 level seems to hold, and AdStoK is now showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156.
The Swing indicator should turn around soon, but one should not anticipate any strong up move in the short term.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, but not to worry at least until AdStoK line cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 26th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: mildly UP to UP, depending on behaviour on resistance level.

NDX is certainly bullish but the 60mins chart is no longer the dominant chart (possible divergence) and Entropy is not very strong.
NDX should carry on going up, but it will have to pass strong resistance levels, at the moment 8 points apart, the next one being at 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. (Possible divergence then?) This is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now. One can only anticipate more difficulty reaching the strong MM level at 2125.