Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Market Update - Nov 18th '09

The report yesterday indicated ES would try and aim higher, testing 1110 again, even if we are clearly in a 'confusion area' as this is also a reversal zone.
The current Fib expansion pattern had a first target on 1111, i.e. in the same target zone. It could break out to the next one up (1118) or more likely test retracement levels just above 1100 or even lower. In other words, the 60mins chart will probably look congested again, which means that a shorter time frame may be recommended, taking in consideration the context provided by the daily/weekly charts.
TF is hovering high near stall level, looking unconvincingly at creeping higher to around 610. A Fib target has been reached on 602. So, will buyers try and give it one last shot ? We hope to see time frames aligning for a clearer picture soon, and this probably on the way down.

EURUSD: The signs of exhaustion mentioned yesterday actually turned into a sizable retracement to bounce to Fib (~1.489). This pivot level will determine whether selling now resumes or not. Our indicators would rather point down, but rather to congest in this new trading range (yesterday's lows to pivot level) than fall a lot further.

( posted 5:30 AM UK )