Thursday, May 08, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - May 8th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for SPY - May 8th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Outlook NDX for May 8th '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to retracement
Cycles: quite unreliable
Position (60mins): flat to short

NDX needed to hit 2000 to trigger significant selling. We all anticipated that, it is however still always amazing to see. We now have to see whether the market consolidates soon or not. The bias remains up overall.

60mins: looking for support
Despite the sudden profit taking session yesterday, we have no indication of a continuation of the fall. Significance level is low so we'll favour channel lows and Fib/MM levels for possible support (including current level).
NB: Intraday time frames give great charts with a support level at 1938.

Daily: congestion to minor retracement
MTFS points towards a congestion at this high level but a minor retracement is possible without affecting the ongoing recovery overall. Like on the 60mins chart, we will look closely at Fib/MM levels even more so since significance level is high. In case of retracement, we will look for support around 1910 then 1880.

Weekly: Resistance level around 2000
No significant change from last post:
The Swing is still down, in agreement with MTFS which is still only in an upward retracement mode.
This confirms the scenario whereby the 2000 area should remain a strong resistance level (Fib + MM).
Now we have to see how a retracement accelerates the completion of the MTFS pattern.