Friday, November 21, 2008


Oh well, yes, i was right. I announced that purge and short sellers are happy today but i won't boast or rejoice in sympathy for millions who are depressed by these markets. To those i just have to say that the bottom is now around the corner. Markets have now reached the levels they were supposed to reach.

EURUSD: Hit the lower boundary of its short term range at ~1.245 where it could try and bounce a little. EURUSD is oversold but not yet ready to turn around. Over the medium term, one cannot discard a target around 1.23 (stall), or even 1.22 (strong support)

ER: There we are. We've hit 380, so we can now rest for a while. Volatility could exarcebate profit taking or some short squeeze, but more realistically, ER should stay low to dissipate the massive negative energy built in the market. Over the medium term, 437 is key level.

ES: Same story. We're now on 750 which is quite a strong support level. Here also a bounce is possible if not likely (tgt: ~781), and here also bear pressure is enormous. Short sellers may want to take profits and/or tighten stops.

Over the longer term, we still have a possible ES target around 710, but 750 could still hold so we'll remain quite careful here. The purge is not technically over and volatility can play more tricks. At this juncture, one can take profits and wait for a clearer picture, otherwise short intraday time frames are recommended.

(posted 00.30 AM Eastern)