Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Market update - Feb 3rd '09

My crystal ball did a good job again on EURUSD... and this will be the last week for FX posts in terms of an exclusivity agreement. We shall gradually return to 2 posts a week on US indices as the financial crisis slowly comes to an end.

So EURUSD bounced as anticipated and should now resume its course south. Selling pressure should however decrease so one may want to follow shorter intraday time frames. Once/if 1.282 is passed, we'll check 1.277 and then 1.2695 again.
Our longer term outlook remains unchanged still.

Here again, ER behaved as expected, bouncing a little below 437 (physicists will understand that support levels always contain a degree of elasticity on account of volatility).
ER reached Fib PR1 and could higher, but not without a bit of range trading first. 437 could even be tested again.

ES is also a little undecisive with a willingness to take off, but no real energy to do so right now. We should however eventually leave this trading range on the up side. Resistance levels are placed a few points apart from 828 to 844, so could be as many stumbling blocks indicating the way to recovery is bound to be a little bumpy.

( posted 7:30 AM UK )