Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Market Snapshot for EURUSD - Mar 18th 2008

EURUSD snapshot. This pair could show interesting patterns over the next few days and weeks. (cf. previous posts and 'twin' blog for interpretation)

Market Snapshot for NDX - Mar 18th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Mar 18th 2008

cf. RUT post below

Market Outlook RUT for Mar 18th '08

Dominant TF: weekly chart, then daily and 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable (low signal/noise ratio)
Market Direction: same trading range
Position (60mins): short but target in sight.
Short Apr760 Calls, Long Apr770 Calls,
Long Apr570 Puts, Short Apr580 Puts

I warned on last post (Mar13th) that there was no recovery potential. We indeed went back to support level as anticipated. What next?

60mins: aiming at lows again but some relief could be coming
RUT went back down to the MM support level, and even penetrated deep enough to almost test previous lows. Furthermore, it is possible that the last 2 bars testing 656 as a resistance level now is paving the way to go lower. Previous lows are in the low 640s, then there 632 is a Fib target. MTFS looks bearish, but a support could be found at current levels or a little lower (white line diverging) and Entropy is now picking up a bit.

Daily: same as on the 60mins chart, i.e. more price erosion but a support could be found soon (625?).
The trend is undoubtedly down, but we have Entropy bottoming out and maybe a little bit of a divergence on the MTFS white line. The momentum should however take RUT a little lower, and even possibly hit 625 at some point.

Weekly: nothing new, i.e. congestion to down
We're now back to the previous lows, i.e. a level we had clearly anticipated. We're on Fibonacci PR1 as well as MM stall level, which may cushion or even stop the fall also confirming levels seen on lower time frames. MTFS however still looks very bearish here, but as mentioned over and over on this blog, this negative pressure can sometimes also dissipate slowly through the passage of time. For the time being, we have NO sign of recovery, and should the current level fail to resist this on-going down pressure, 625 seems a reasonable target for now... Only the completion of the MTFS pattern will tell us when the fall is finally over.