Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Feb 20th 2008

cf. NDX post below

For some odd reason, last Friday's (Feb 15th) postings do no longer appear on this site... No need to post them again now, but in any case, apologies for the inconvenience.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Feb 20th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Outlook NDX for Feb 20th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins, then Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): on its way to 1750 as expected
Position (60mins): non directional with lower bias.

60mins: obvious
The MTFS pattern was pretty clear until the suprising open yesterday. NDX however quickly resumed its course, now even showing an even clearer Fib pattern, with a 1750 target.
Entropy is pretty week however, so one cannot anticipate volatility or the kind of landing to expect on that level.

Daily: bearish tone
MTFS and Entropy do point towards a congestion at this low level. Now that 1750 is around the corner, we have to see how it will be tested for guidance on forthcoming market direction. For the time being, it seems it can only go lower.

Weekly: again decidedly bearish for now, but support could hold
Indeed no reason to be optimistic right now, but one shall always check MM and Fib levels carefully, and one should not discard that there is always a chance that 1750 will hold if things slow down a little *, particularly if the white line reaches oversold level, where NDX could bounce at least momentarily.
1750 is the last defense line before we enter a bear market. Next support level would then be 1640.

* MTFS has some built-in momentum and can reach oversold level as time simply goes by, instead of only following price action. This means that a congestion at this low level may complete the pattern more or less the same way as a market fall would.