Wednesday, November 04, 2009

How far ahead ... ?

Not an update... just a reminder on the topic: How far can we "predict" the market behaviour ?

Indeed, i have said repeatedly that the tool set as it is does not capture volatility very well "mea culpa" but at the same time, if we use it for its intended purpose i.e. swing trading, turning points, targets, energy levels and support/resistance do provide collectively a more than adequate picture.

On average however, the market outlook is valid for 3 to 5 bars, sometimes brought down to 1 bar in case of a high volatility environment. Since the daily chart outlook often does not change enough to justify a regular update, the report tends to focus on the 60mins chart which obviously could warrant 2 reports a day... which i don't necessarily have the time for... A bit of a catch-22 ... So if any one wants to give it a go and post a mid-day update...

Market Update - Nov 4th '09

ES behaved pretty well and stayed above 1032 as expected. It may even try and creep higher as short sellers take their profits. There is no indication that this recovery will last, so we'll just check MM/Fib levels on the daily chart (1052?).
TF follows the exact same path, and again shorter time frames are recommended for those looking for entry points in short term retracement trades. The mid term trend is still down even if the markets are obviously hesitant on a strong support level (562 for TF, 1032 for ES). The longer term support will probably be found within the next price segment down.

EURUSD also behaved nicely and bounced on our support around 1.464 to now aim at the 1.477 area. We're obviously in a channel and the longer term retracement potential is limited, but may see 1.464 tested again in the next few days. If broken, EURUSD could retrace to 1.44 within a few weeks. We'll come back to this scenario in the coming week.

( posted 5:30 AM UK )