Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Market Update - Oct 6th '09

I have to admit the weekly report is a little wrong. We did notice a landing on target with no selling pressure to go lower, but we could not anticipate a jump over the weekend (news?) even if the time was indeed right for a reversal.

ES now retraced to the first salient Fib level and still does not convince us of a stronger recovery. Obviously, volatility has been pretty strong over the last week that a move of 1% or 2% up or down would not be indicative of anything but noise. Right or wrong, we keep our target down over the medium term.

TF of course also bounced, or should i say, led the bounce since the support level on 578 was certainly obvious. TF also bounced to Fib level and like ES will probably fade over the next couple of days.

We'll refine our targets over the next few days.

EURUSD broke on the up side and hit about stall level (1.474) close to the 1.477 target. We cannot at this point say that the retracement below 1.45 was the one we expected just yet. We'll have to wait for the weekly pivot to confirm, knowing that chances of a strong retracement are certainly low.

( posted late 8 AM UK )