Thursday, April 24, 2008

Market Snapshot for EURUSD - Apr 24th 2008

Here is a snapshot on EURUSD, which may breakout on the downside. Maybe a little too early to say, but always interesting to watch in realtime...

Market Snapshot ER2 (RUT) for Apr 24th '08

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 24th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Outlook NDX for Apr 24th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins.
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): up overall, but volatile still.
Cycles: good fit, but not reliable (high noise level)
Position (60mins): flat or long with tighter stops

NDX reached its Fib target (OP), and as expected on last NDX post, found some support on MM pivot to stall at Fib level again. What next?

60mins: overbought, trying to go higher
NDX is hesitating at this level. This is also visible with a MTFS pointing higher while overbought and Entropy being quite weak.
New energy (economic news, breakout) will be needed to make NDX aim at 2000.

Daily: upper bias, but resistance level.
The daily chart also shows a Fib target level around 1910. The MTFS pattern looks fairly positive but since we have a high Entropy level (EntBin = 4), we shall remain careful. Entropy is showing a lower high, and if the MTFS white line also peaks while other lines lag far behind, a retracement would be certain. We will therefore watch our indicators as well as NDX behaviour on resistance level carefully. Until then the bias is still positive.
As a note, any retracement would just be a slow down on the way to 2000.

Weekly: patience...
Like on lower time frames, it is now visible that NDX will try and aim at 2000 (MM + Fib). However, unless the MTFS pattern evolves dramatically, there is very little chance that we switch back to bull mode, i.e. a pullback is almost certain either before or after hitting 2000 (the swing indicator has not toggled up yet either)
This is an important clue that call spreads above 2000 is quite safe.
As said earlier, the 2000 level will be key to market direction for the rest of the year.