Saturday, August 29, 2009

Weekly Report - Aug 31st to Sep 4th '09

As mentioned several times last week, 1032 seems to be a tough one to pass, with fallbacks on 1024 or lower around 1016 (again major energy levels are more or less 8 points apart on ES).
Difficult to give an accurate scenario as a retracement is quite possible if only to gather strength to go higher later on still. The weekly chart shows energy exhaustion like lower time frames, but seems nonetheless set on a course to a higher Fib level.
Volumes should pick up by 10% in the next couple of weeks, thus helping to resolve the current uncertainty.

TF: We note that while the long term scenario is the same, indications of a forthcoming retracement are more visible. TF could shed up to 16 points to 562. should erosion persist, we'll check the 568-570 area first.

EURUSD: in bounce territory at this level (1.428), but could well drop to 1.422. Longer term upside potential is definitely there still even though energy is slowly dissipating at the moment. Support at 1.422 may do the trick and allow EURUSD to rise again.

( posted Sat 11 AM UK )

NB: Custom studies can be arranged on request

Friday, August 28, 2009

Market Update - Aug 28th '09

Well, there was no post earlier this morning, but it doesn't seem like i missed much action so far... ES is still stuck in the [ 1024 - 1032 ] price segment (you will notice it is about 1/4 of the overall range).
Again, buyers might just give up... so we'll watch for a possible breakout.

More details in the weekly report

( posted lated 6 PM UK )

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Market Update - Aug 27th '09

As mentioned yesterday, the current stall on 1032 may tire buyers after a while. We are still in the same tight range (support ~1024), so yesterday's post is still valid.
Again, while a drop (breakout) is possible around 1024, at this point in time we have no indication from higher time frames that prices would go lower than the Fib level (~1013).

TF also seems locked in a narrow congestion range, but shows more resilience still. Having said that, there is a strong resistance ahead, this hesitation could end up with some retracement in the next few days to a week (573, then 562).

EURUSD: support on 1.422 should hold, but the bounce looks limited. In the longer term, we must note that if EURUSD does not pass 1.434 (first: 1.428), buyers may also give up here and retracement to 1.418 (or lower) could then be envisaged.

( posted 6:20 AM UK )

NB: a bit of traveling ahead, so will try and post while connecting at the airport tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Market Update - Aug 26th '09

ES seems to have trouble passing 1032 and buyers might just give up and let sellers lead the game at least for now. We'll check 1024 for a possible drop to the Fib levels around 1013 and then 1000.
Again (cf. previous posts), this is only normal hesitation and the longer term trend remains fairly bullish (same targets).
Same story for TF.

EURUSD: our support area mentioned yesterday is still valid. Prices could land there for a while and then bounce back. One might not get to 1.4646 straight away, but 1.4373 then 1.4404 are plausible targets.

( posted 6:20 AM UK )

NB: There will probably be no post on Friday morning.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Market Update - Aug 25th '09

ES stalled on the resistance level around 1032 as anticipated, then retraced slightly to the minor 16% Fib level (~1020). Further erosion is possible but should only be visible in intraday time frames. Longer time frames are also losing steam but remain marginally bullish.

We do note Fib levels around 1013 then 1000 again.

Same story for TF, with Fib levels around 571 and 561 (minor Fib at 577), and here again, current erosion is nothing but normal and should not turn into a sizable retracement either.

EURUSD: No change in outlook just yet. We are watching for a bounce on 1.426 to 1.428 to aim back at range highs around 1.44 (mid term). If our support breaks, we'll review our position to probably go short for a 1.398 then 1.369 targets.

( posted 6:50 AM UK )

NB: there will be no post on Friday

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Weekly Report - Aug 24th to 28th '09

Not only we got the expected breakout, but we almost got a move of a full price segment (32 points) in a single day. Prices indeed almost reached 1030 and could still creep higher later on after first settling on these new resistance levels. No retracement in sight.

TF follows a similar path with a 595 target now. Levels are not exactly in sync with ES but this should not significantly affect the overall correlation.

Note that while we might see a continuation of this bull run for a while (maybe over a month), this recovery is still relatively fragile and one could see some serious retracement in 4th quarter (Entropy is way too high)

A quick word on EURUSD: still bullish while on target around 1.43
It could try and aim higher still. We shall try to calculate our targets more accurately next week, but let's say already that we have a looong term objective price around 1.464

( Posted Sat 7:30 AM UK )

Friday, August 21, 2009

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Market Update - Aug 21st '09

Not much happening on our index futures yesterday with the same hesitation around trading range highs.
Chances of breakout are quite significant so any good news could trigger the next round of buying. We would then check our 32 point wide price segments for targets.
TF is in the same situation, so while we may see a continuation of the same congestion, it is also likely to aim higher even if we can't pinpoint exactly when. Maybe today, maybe not...

( posted 6:30 AM UK )

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Market Update - Aug 20th '09

ES is back on the 1000 level after bouncing on trading range lows.
While this is a very strong resistance combined to Fib PR2 on the 60mins chart, the chances of range breakout are substantial.
One should not put the "cart before the bull" though. We note that the weekly chart offers a breakout level around 1015.

Note on EURUSD: rangy with a possible pivot down if 1.426 resists. Retracement would however be relatively limited (higher time frame)

( posted 6:30 AM UK )

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Market Update - Aug 19th '09

ES almost made it to 991 yesterday, but is now looking at retracing lower to the bottom of the trading range (~980) and problably lower still later on. The 980 level is a good test right now. Markets could shed another 3% within a week in case of a breakout.

Again, we have no indication of a reversal on longer time frames just yet, so this is only normal profit taking, as well as a normal period of hesitation on a key level (1000).

( posted 7:30 AM UK )

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Market Update - Aug 18th '09

ES found support on the 977 stall level, but we also notice the ~32 point price segment evoked so many times on these reports so real support should be found lower despite its endeavour to bounce now.

As mentioned before, 1000 remains a key level to sustain the bull run we've had for over a month or on the contrary to retrace substantially. 1000 is also a Fib Pr2 now on the 60mins chart.

We'll watch 991 first (Fib PR1) as a resistance now and again we don't see prices going higher right now.

Having said that, there is still a substantial upward potential once this profit taking session is over (down to Fib PR1 on Daily chart). TF indeed seems set on a course to 600 on the weekly chart.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Monday, August 17, 2009

Weekly Report - Aug 17th to 21st '09

On Firday ES received a "shock" from a systemic point of view and apparently absorbed it pretty well.

Being indeed on a strong resistance, a market is generally more susceptible to bad news, while not necessarily derailing the on-going trend. In this particular instance, ES was halted around 1016 (we note the same 16 point wide price segment we've seem for a while), to fall almost to the bottom of the trading range (~990), where it found support and rebounded late in the day.

The question is therefore: was it a false alert or on the contrary the first tangible sign of exhaustion of the bull market after a very strong month of July.
MTFS on the 60mins chart could indicate a return to the lower part of the trading range, so we'll check the behaviour on 1000 then on 990. However while we can see a pivot on higher time frames, there is still a lot of residual buying pressure. We shall review our scenario as the week progresses particularly if our trading range breaks out on the down side.
Traders who have been long for a few weeks should consider tightening stops below 980.

The scenario is the same for TF. We'll be watching closely the 555 and 548 levels. Again, not much concern just yet.

( posted 8 AM UK )

Friday, August 14, 2009

Market Update - Aug 14th '09

Quick end-of-week update.
This week has indeed been overall contained in the same trading range with the same bullish bias. Chance of a breakout on the up side are substantial.
TF is also exactly on the resistance level we anticipated, and could still aim higher.

We'll review our scenario on the weekly report, but are considering moving our targets higher (1047 for ES, 590 for TF).

( posted 8:30 AM UK )

Sunday, August 09, 2009

Weekly Report - Aug 10th to 14th '09

ES reached the 2nd Fib target level on Friday, still within the resistance area given on previous reports (1000-1020).

We still do not see the buying pressuring abating much, hence while the 1000 level is still quite valid, we may see the level being tested as support. If 1000 doesn't hold, then profit taking could pick up some momentum, even though one cannot see it at present.

TF gives us a potential higher target in the mid 590s and the previous 562 resistance level has now been clearly broken (new res level is 578). One could therefore extrapolate a strong resistance level in the area (just another jump to the next 16-point price segment).

We do notice a mix of more hesitation inducing higher volatility in this underlying bullish trend.

Some traders may want to secure profit by moving their stop just below Thursday's lows (i.e. around 990).

NB: There won't be daily updates this week.

Friday, August 07, 2009

Market Update - Aug 7th '09

We have a confirmation of the pause on the salient 1000 level, however no indication of any signification retracement either. ES came down to the Fib PR1 level (38%) and could actually shed a few more points to find support o the mid 980s. Again it doesn't mean that ES will not rise again in the medium term as residual buying pressure is still there.

A data issue pending correction by TradeStation prevents any analysis of TF at this time.

NB: there will be no daily update next week.

( posted 8:10 AM UK )

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Market Update - Aug 6th '09

Prices are still hoevering the key 1000 level, and i'm afraid it is not possible to know right now whether it will break out on the up side or not. There is some potential indeed, and we could give it a slight bias, but retracement can certainly not be discarded either.

We also note that TF and ES are exactly in synch so neither can pull the other one in either direction...

Nota Bene: There will be a weekoy report this weekend but no daily update next week.

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Market Update - Aug 4th '09

There we are. 1000.
What next now ???

There is still substantial buying pressure to dissipate. Prices should stay high today again, probably due to some residual momentum trading. TF could even breakout from the 562 resistance area and aim for the next Fib target near 600. A pause (or very minor retracement) is however likely in the short term.

( posted 8:15 AM UK )

Monday, August 03, 2009

Weekly Report - Aug 3rd to 7th '09

ES has shown to be hesitant on month end, with increasing signs of some modes retracement ahead of the 1000 target. It is difficult to say whether 1000 will be hit shortly or hit at all, as a high of 994 falls within the margin of error.

For now there is still substantial resilience and profit taking looks limited. One cannot however discard some acceleration either way as the week progresses. Tick charts (max 1 day visibility) point for some retracement, and we'll watch the key 984 and 992 pivot levels which could send prices to 1000 or not (price segments are roughly 8 points apart). A continuation of the same hesitation and consequently of the same trading range in the 980s is also possible.

Note that TF is also hovering around target area (550 to 560) with a next target around 600-625. However a stall or minor retracement is also expected here.

NB: there may be only one or two reports this week unless market action warrants regular updates of course.

( posted 9:40 AM UK )