Sunday, January 06, 2008

Market Outlook SPY for Jan 7th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: possible upturn but unreliable significance level
Market Direction: probably lower lower still
Short: nothing wrong taking profit around coming support level
Flat: be patient
Long: you must be mad

We admittedly did not fully anticipate the market to fall so quickly. We thought the 143.75 level would be at least somewhat defended.

60mins: down still
The pattern is not quite complete yet, although the MTFS white line may imply some cooling down. The sentiment is still quite negative though.

Daily: congestion to down
I warned to be careful about the triangle breakout... could not be more right, could i ...? Surprisingly, MTFS and Entropy are not overly bearish yet, so we can see it either as room to fall further (137.75?) or maybe a sign it will be soon over (140.6?).

Weekly: congestion to down
Quite a volatile environment... This time frame has difficulty adapting to the current market moves at the moment.
We would like to see Entropy stabilising for a possible recovery. We have to watch current levels or possibly 137.75 for support now.