Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Mar 25th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for NDX - Mar 25th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Mar 25th '08

Dominant TF: Weekly followed by 60mins.
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Cycles: upturn indeed but very low signal to noise ratio
Market Direction: Upper bias, and more indication that fall may be over, but no substantial recovery in sight just yet.
Position: Contrarians and aggressive traders would be long, bears would be flat, and all others would have a iron condor in place.

Last post on SPY on Mar 19th was correct. We've indeed seen SPY now hovering in the upper half of the same trading range since mid January. What can we read now?

60mins: upper bias until resistance level
The 'wavy' MTFS is representative of the current volatility and hesitation, so now that the upper bias is there, we shall reach the MM resistance level at 137.50. We have a Fib target around current levels and a little higher, so difficult to say whether SPY will pull back a little before getting there.

Daily: no recovery potential just yet
MTFS is not showing enough strength to go higher than current range highs, so we'll have to look at SPY behaviour around those highs. As said on last post, and confirming the 60mins scenario, SPY should remain within the higher part of the same range since January, i.e. more or less within the [132-138] range.

Weekly: are we out of the woods?
No major change since last post, except that the anticipated bounce occured.
MTFS is still quite bearish, so is Entropy. Obviously, with EntBin at -4 (min is -5) a bounce was in the cards, taking SPY a little higher and thus alleviating pressure on MTFS. All in all, we would then see completion of the MTFS pattern within 4 to 6 weeks, and be in a better position to go higher then.
Level-wise, it is quite clear that the test level will be 137.50 support last year, then resistance earlier this year. It would be good to see it passed then tested as support again. It could however take a while.
Again and again, for the time being, patience and caution must be both exercised.